Markets Weekly Outlook – October 5–9, 2026: Wall Street Hits New Records as Weak Jobs Data Ease Fed Pressure Market Overview: Wall Street Remains Resilient Despite Economic Uncertainty US equity markets ended last week higher, supported by weaker-than-expected employment data that reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. The Nasdaq reached a new record, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also advanced on Friday. September nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, well below expectations of approximately 90,000. Previous employment figures were also revised lower, while unemployment rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%. The figures point to a gradually cooling labour market, strengthening expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. However, the positive equity performance contrasts with a more challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Treasury yields remain elevated, reflecting persistent inflation concerns, government financing pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. US Equities: Technology Continues to Lead The S&P 500 gained 0.7% on Friday, the Dow Jones advanced approximately 250 points, while the Nasdaq rose 1% to close at a record 30,808. For the week, the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, the S&P 500 added 0.2%, while the Dow Jones lost approximately 319 points. Technology and AI-related stocks remained among the strongest performers. Nvidia gained 1.3%, Broadcom advanced 3.3% and AMD rose 2.9%. Alphabet, Amazon and Oracle also finished higher, while Tesla jumped 4.6% following stronger-than-expected third-quarter sales. Despite the positive momentum, elevated Treasury yields and increasing financing requirements for AI infrastructure remain potential risks for highly valued technology companies. Treasury Yields and the Federal Reserve: A Delicate Balance The bond market remains one of the most important variables for investors. Weaker employment data have reduced expectations of further monetary tightening, but persistently elevated yields continue to pressure equity valuations and financing conditions. Markets will closely examine Wednesday's FOMC minutes for further indications about the Fed's assessment of inflation and labour-market conditions. The central bank faces a difficult balancing act: persistent inflation argues for caution, while weakening employment increases the risk of maintaining restrictive monetary conditions for too long. Oil: G7 Reserve Releases Offer Temporary Relief Crude oil experienced significant volatility on Friday, falling to $88.06 before recovering towards $92 per barrel. The recovery followed the G7 announcement of plans to release approximately 100 million barrels of crude and diesel reserves over four months to ease fuel-market pressures. Although the initiative may temporarily stabilise prices, geopolitical risks remain substantial. Crude exports from the Persian Gulf have reportedly approached pre-conflict levels, but physical flows remain volatile. Meanwhile, reports of a possible deployment of a third US aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East have renewed concerns about further escalation. The Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure will therefore remain critical variables for oil prices. Any renewed disruption could quickly reverse the recent correction. Gold and the US Dollar Gold traded around $4,140 per ounce on Friday, supported by weaker employment data and reduced expectations of immediate Fed tightening. Nevertheless, elevated Treasury yields and dollar strength remain potential obstacles to further gains. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide an additional source of defensive demand. The US Dollar Index slipped below 102, ending a four-session advance following the disappointing employment report. Despite Friday's decline, the dollar remained on track for a weekly gain of approximately 0.9%, its third consecutive positive week. The next direction will largely depend on incoming economic data and movements in Treasury yields. Brazil: Presidential Election in Focus Brazil's presidential election will be another important event for global markets. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are competing in a closely contested race, with a second round appearing increasingly likely. The outcome could influence fiscal policy, investment flows and the outlook for commodities, energy and agricultural exports, making the election particularly relevant for Latin American markets and internationally exposed companies. Week Ahead: October 5–9 The coming week will focus on US economic activity, central-bank expectations and geopolitical developments. Key events include: Monday: US ISM Services PMI and S&P Global Services PMI. Wednesday: FOMC meeting minutes, providing further insight into the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Friday: Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations. Throughout the week: Federal Reserve speakers, US trade data, consumer credit and wholesale inventories. In Europe, investors will monitor ECB meeting accounts, German factory orders and industrial production, Eurozone producer prices and retail sales. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of India will announce its monetary policy decision, while Canada will publish employment and trade figures. Inflation data from Mexico and Brazil will also attract attention. OPEC developments and Brazil's election will remain important additional drivers. Intermarket Analysis and Overall Trading Bias The current environment remains characterised by resilient equity markets, elevated Treasury yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Technology continues to support Wall Street, but the sustainability of the rally will depend on whether bond yields stabilise and economic conditions avoid a more pronounced deterioration. Oil remains a critical variable for inflation expectations and overall risk sentiment. Lower prices would provide relief to consumers, bonds and equities, while renewed tensions in the Middle East could quickly reverse that dynamic. Overall Bias: Cautiously bullish on US equities in the short term, with technology continuing to provide support. However, elevated Treasury yields, weakening employment conditions and geopolitical risks argue against excessive optimism. Treasury yields, crude oil and the Fed's next policy signals will remain the key variables to watch.