VOL. I — EDUCATIONAL SERIES WAVE THEORY
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Elliott Waves · Geopolitics · Macroeconomics
Educational Series · Market Structure

Elliott Wave
Theory

The complete institutional framework for reading market structure. From wave identification to trade execution.

01 — Foundations

What is Elliott Wave Theory?

Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, Elliott Wave Theory is a form of technical analysis that describes how markets move in repetitive fractal patterns driven by collective investor psychology. Elliott observed that crowd behavior alternates between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences.

The core insight: markets move in a basic pattern of five waves in the direction of the primary trend, followed by three corrective waves against it. This 5-3 structure repeats at every degree of trend, from minute charts to multi-decade cycles.

Complete 8-Wave Cycle — 5 Impulse + 3 Corrective
02 — The Three Rules

Inviolable Rules

These rules are absolute. If a wave count violates any of them, the count is wrong — no exceptions.

Rule I
Wave 2 Never Retraces Wave 1 Completely
Wave 2 cannot retrace 100% or more of Wave 1. It must end above the start of Wave 1 in a bull market. Typical retracements: 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%.
W2 bottom > W1 origin
Rule II
Wave 3 Is Never the Shortest Impulse Wave
Wave 3 must be longer than at least one of Wave 1 or Wave 5. It is most commonly the longest and strongest wave, extending 161.8% of Wave 1 or more.
W3 > min(W1, W5)
Rule III
Wave 4 Does Not Overlap Wave 1
In an impulse wave, the price territory of Wave 4 cannot overlap with the price territory of Wave 1 (except in diagonal triangles).
W4 low > W1 high
03 — Wave Characteristics

Each Wave Has a Personality

Wave 1 — The Birth

Wave 1 is typically the hardest to identify in real time. It often appears as a routine countertrend rally against the previous downtrend. Volume is modest, and the news is still negative.

Analysts typically still bearish. Smart money accumulates quietly. Wave 1 is often short and choppy.

No prior Fibonacci ref Length baseline for W3, W5
Wave 1 Context

Wave 2 — The Shakeout

Wave 2 retraces deeply but cannot exceed Wave 1's origin. The crowd believes the prior downtrend has resumed. Pessimism returns. Volume is lower than Wave 1's peak.

This is where weak hands are shaken out before the powerful Wave 3 begins.

50% retrace 61.8% retrace ★ 76.4% retrace
Wave 2 Context

Wave 3 — The Power Move

Wave 3 is almost always the longest and most powerful impulse wave. Breakouts occur, fundamentals confirm, the news turns positive. Volume expands significantly.

This is where the majority of traders enter and where the most money is made. Never the shortest impulse wave.

138.2% of W1 161.8% of W1 ★ 261.8% of W1 423.6% of W1
Wave 3 Context

Wave 4 — The Consolidation

Wave 4 is typically sideways and complex — a flat, triangle, or zigzag. It corrects Wave 3's advance but must not enter Wave 1's territory. It alternates in character with Wave 2.

Guideline of alternation: if Wave 2 was a sharp correction, Wave 4 tends to be flat/sideways, and vice versa.

38.2% of W3 ★ 23.6% of W3 50% of W3
Wave 4 Context

Wave 5 — The Final Push

Wave 5 is the final leg in the direction of trend. Breadth often narrows — fewer stocks participating. Divergences appear on momentum indicators (RSI, MACD). Public sentiment is extremely bullish.

Wave 5 is often the setup for the best short trade as the corrective A-B-C follows.

Equal to W1 61.8% of W1+W3 ★ 161.8% of W1
Wave 5 Context

Wave A — First Corrective Leg

Wave A is the initial counter-trend move. Most analysts still view it as a temporary pullback within the uptrend. Volume begins to pick up to the downside.

Wave A can subdivide into 5 waves (zigzag) or 3 waves (flat). The structure of Wave A identifies the corrective pattern type.

38.2% retrace of impulse 50% retrace ★ 61.8% retrace
Wave A Context

Wave B — The Bull Trap

Wave B is a counter-rally against Wave A. This is the classic bull trap — the crowd believes the uptrend has resumed. Volume is typically lower and the move lacks conviction.

Wave B rarely retraces more than 100% of Wave A. If it does, re-evaluate the entire count.

38.2% of A 61.8% of A ★ 76.4% of A
Wave B Context

Wave C — The Decisive Decline

Wave C is almost always a 5-wave structure and is the most devastating corrective wave. It confirms the correction is real. Panic selling emerges, fundamentals turn negative.

Wave C typically equals Wave A in length, or extends to 161.8% of Wave A.

Equal to A ★ 61.8% of A 161.8% of A
Wave C Context
04 — Corrective Patterns

The Four Corrective Structures

Zigzag (5-3-5)
Sharp correction. Wave A and C each subdivide into 5 waves; Wave B into 3. Most common corrective pattern. Wave C typically equals or exceeds Wave A. Used in Wave 2 positions most frequently.
Flat (3-3-5)
Sideways correction. All three subwaves (A, B, C) are roughly equal in size. Wave B retraces nearly 100% of Wave A. Common in Wave 4 positions. Three sub-variants: regular, expanded, running.
Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)
Five overlapping waves (A-B-C-D-E) that contract within converging trendlines. Almost always in Wave 4 or Wave B positions. The thrust out of the triangle often equals the widest part of the triangle.
Double/Triple Zigzag
Complex corrections joining two or three simple patterns via connector waves labeled X. More common in Wave 4 and large Wave 2 corrections. Signals a strong underlying trend when complete.
Zigzag · Flat · Triangle — Side by Side
05 — Fibonacci Relationships

Key Fibonacci Ratios

Fibonacci ratios are the mathematical foundation of Elliott Wave analysis. Every wave has predictable relationships to adjacent waves.

WaveRetracement ofCommon RatiosKey Level
Wave 2Wave 150%, 61.8%, 76.4%61.8%
Wave 3Wave 1 extension138.2%, 161.8%, 261.8%161.8%
Wave 4Wave 323.6%, 38.2%, 50%38.2%
Wave 5= Wave 1 or ext.61.8%, 100%, 161.8%= W1
Wave APrior impulse38.2%, 50%, 61.8%50%
Wave BWave A38.2%, 61.8%, 76.4%61.8%
Wave C= Wave A or ext.61.8%, 100%, 161.8%= A
06 — Wave Degrees

The Fractal Hierarchy

Elliott Wave operates simultaneously at all timeframes. A Wave 3 on a monthly chart contains 5 waves on a weekly chart, each of which contains 5 waves on a daily chart.

Grand Supercycle
Multi-century
Supercycle
Multi-decade
Cycle
1–10 years
Primary
Months–Years
Intermediate
Weeks–Months
Minor
Weeks
Minute
Days
Minuette
Hours
07 — Glossary

Elliott Wave Glossary

Search and explore every term in Elliott Wave Theory. Click any entry to expand.

40 terms
Impulse Wave (5-wave)Wave
A five-wave structure that moves in the direction of the primary trend. Labelled 1-2-3-4-5. Waves 1, 3, and 5 are motive; waves 2 and 4 are corrective. The impulse is the building block of all trending markets. Rules: Wave 2 never retraces 100% of Wave 1; Wave 3 is never the shortest; Wave 4 never overlaps Wave 1.
Wave 1Wave
The first wave of an impulse. Often hard to identify in real time as it looks like a counter-trend rally. Volume is modest, news still negative. Smart money accumulates. Sets the length baseline for Waves 3 and 5.
Wave 2Wave
Corrective wave against Wave 1. Retraces 50–76.4% of Wave 1 but never 100% or more (inviolable rule). Creates the "shakeout" that removes weak hands before the powerful Wave 3. Typical retracements: 61.8% (most common), 50%, 76.4%.
Wave 3Wave
The most powerful and typically the longest impulse wave. Never the shortest impulse wave (inviolable rule). Breakouts occur, volume surges, fundamentals confirm, public enters. Most commonly extends to 161.8% of Wave 1. The best wave to be positioned for.
Wave 4Wave
Corrective wave against Wave 3. Typically sideways and complex (flat or triangle). Cannot overlap Wave 1's price territory (inviolable rule). Guideline of Alternation: tends to contrast in character with Wave 2. Common retracement: 38.2% of Wave 3.
Wave 5Wave
The final impulse wave in the direction of trend. Market breadth narrows. RSI and MACD often diverge (price makes new high, momentum does not). The public is extremely bullish. Often sets up the best short trade of the cycle as corrective A-B-C follows.
Wave AWave
First wave of the corrective ABC sequence. Looks like a routine pullback in the uptrend. Volume begins to increase to the downside. Wave A's internal structure (5 waves = zigzag; 3 waves = flat/triangle) identifies the corrective pattern type.
Wave BWave
Counter-rally against Wave A. The classic "bull trap" — the crowd believes the uptrend has resumed. Volume is lower and the move lacks conviction. Rarely retraces more than 100% of Wave A. Most common retracement: 61.8% of Wave A.
Wave CWave
The decisive, devastating corrective decline. Almost always a 5-wave structure internally. Panic selling emerges, news turns negative, fundamentals deteriorate. Typically equals Wave A in length or extends to 161.8% of Wave A.
Rule I — Wave 2 Never Retraces 100%Rule
Inviolable. Wave 2 must end above the origin of Wave 1 (in a bull market). If price retraces 100% or more of Wave 1, the wave count is invalid and must be re-evaluated. No exceptions.
Rule II — Wave 3 Never ShortestRule
Inviolable. Wave 3 must be longer than at least one of Wave 1 or Wave 5. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves. If it is, the count is wrong.
Rule III — Wave 4 No OverlapRule
Inviolable. In an impulse wave, Wave 4 cannot enter the price territory of Wave 1. Exception: diagonal triangles. If overlap occurs in a standard impulse, the count is invalid.
Guideline of AlternationRule
A guideline (not a rule): corrective waves tend to alternate in character. If Wave 2 is a sharp, deep correction (zigzag), Wave 4 will tend to be a shallow, sideways correction (flat or triangle), and vice versa. Helps anticipate corrective structure.
Zigzag (5-3-5)Pattern
The sharpest and most common corrective pattern. Internal structure: Wave A subdivides into 5, Wave B into 3, Wave C into 5. Wave C typically equals or exceeds Wave A. Most common in Wave 2 positions. Creates steep, clean retracements.
Flat (3-3-5)Pattern
A sideways correction. All three waves (A, B, C) are roughly equal in size. Wave B retraces nearly 100% of Wave A. Three variants: Regular Flat (C ends near A's origin), Expanded Flat (C exceeds A's origin), Running Flat (C ends above A's origin). Common in Wave 4.
Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)Pattern
Five overlapping corrective waves (A-B-C-D-E) within converging trendlines. Almost always appears in Wave 4 or Wave B positions — never in Wave 2. The "thrust" out of the triangle equals the widest part. Four types: contracting, expanding, ascending, descending.
Double Zigzag / Triple ZigzagPattern
Complex corrections joining two or three simple zigzag patterns via connector waves labelled X. Appear in strong trend markets where a single zigzag doesn't retrace enough. Signal a powerful underlying trend when complete. More common in large Wave 4 and Wave 2 corrections.
Diagonal TrianglePattern
A 5-wave structure where each subwave is a corrective (3-wave) structure. Appears only in Wave 1 or Wave 5 (leading diagonal) or Wave C (ending diagonal). Wave 4 CAN overlap Wave 1 — the only exception to Rule III. Signals exhaustion or a powerful new trend beginning.
Corrective ABCPattern
The three-wave counter-trend movement following a five-wave impulse. The basic corrective structure: Wave A down, Wave B up (partial retracement), Wave C down to completion. The ABC correction itself subdivides into smaller 5-3 patterns at lower degrees.
Golden Ratio (0.618 / 1.618)Fibonacci
The most important Fibonacci ratio in Elliott Wave analysis. 0.618 is the key retracement for Wave 2. 1.618 is the key extension for Wave 3. Derived from the Fibonacci sequence where each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21…
Fibonacci RetracementFibonacci
Corrective waves retrace prior impulse waves at predictable Fibonacci levels. Key levels: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%. Wave 2 most commonly retraces 61.8% of Wave 1. Wave 4 most commonly retraces 38.2% of Wave 3.
Fibonacci ExtensionFibonacci
Impulse waves extend to Fibonacci multiples of prior waves. Key levels: 138.2%, 161.8%, 261.8%, 423.6%. Wave 3 most commonly extends to 161.8% of Wave 1. Wave 5 often equals Wave 1 (100%) or extends to 161.8% of Wave 1.
38.2% RetracementFibonacci
Key Fibonacci level derived from 1 − 0.618. Most common retracement for Wave 4 against Wave 3. Also the minimum retracement expected in most corrective structures. In strong trends, Wave 4 may only retrace 23.6% of Wave 3.
Wave EqualityFibonacci
A guideline stating that when Wave 3 is extended, Waves 1 and 5 tend to be equal in length (or relate by 0.618). Also applies to corrective waves: Wave C often equals Wave A in length. Useful for projecting price targets.
Fractal NatureConcept
Elliott Wave patterns repeat at every timeframe simultaneously. A Wave 3 on a monthly chart contains a complete 5-wave impulse on the weekly, which contains 5-wave impulses on the daily, and so on. Every wave at every degree is simultaneously a subwave of a larger wave and contains smaller subwaves.
Wave DegreeConcept
The size or timeframe classification of a wave. From largest to smallest: Grand Supercycle (centuries), Supercycle (decades), Cycle (years), Primary (months–years), Intermediate (weeks–months), Minor (weeks), Minute (days), Minuette (hours). All degrees operate simultaneously.
Motive WaveConcept
Any wave that moves in the direction of the primary trend. Motive waves subdivide into 5 subwaves. In an uptrend: Waves 1, 3, 5, and sub-waves within these are motive. Motive waves are more straightforward to trade as they offer clear directional momentum.
Corrective WaveConcept
Any wave that moves against the direction of the primary trend. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 subwaves (or multiples of 3). In an uptrend: Waves 2 and 4 are corrective, as is the entire A-B-C sequence following the impulse. More complex and harder to trade than motive waves.
Bull TrapConcept
A false signal where price appears to resume an uptrend, causing traders to go long — only to reverse sharply. In Elliott Wave, the classic bull trap is Wave B of a corrective ABC: a counter-rally that looks bullish but is followed by the devastating Wave C decline.
Momentum DivergenceConcept
A key confirmation signal for wave endings. In Wave 5: price makes a new high but RSI/MACD fail to confirm (bearish divergence) — signals impulse exhaustion. In Wave C: price makes a new low but RSI/MACD diverge (bullish divergence) — signals corrective exhaustion and potential trend reversal.
Invalidation LevelConcept
The price level at which a wave count is proven wrong. For a bullish count: the origin of Wave 1. For a Wave 2 long: if price breaks below Wave 1's starting point, the count is invalid. Always define the invalidation level before entering a trade — it is your stop loss anchor.
Extended WaveConcept
When one impulse wave (usually Wave 3, sometimes Wave 1 or Wave 5) extends far beyond the typical 161.8% Fibonacci projection. An extended Wave 3 subdivides into 9 visible subwaves at the same degree. Extension in Wave 1 or Wave 5 leads to post-extension retracements to unusual depths.
TruncationConcept
When Wave 5 fails to exceed the end of Wave 3 in price. Also called a "failure." Rare, but signals extreme weakness in the underlying trend. The subsequent corrective decline is often severe. Most common in highly volatile markets (crypto, leveraged instruments).
ChannelingConcept
A technique for projecting wave targets using parallel trendlines. Draw a baseline through Wave 1 and Wave 3 ends; a parallel through Wave 2 end projects Wave 4 target. Then draw a baseline through Wave 2 and Wave 4; a parallel through Wave 3 end projects Wave 5 target.
Throw-overConcept
When Wave 5 briefly exceeds the upper channel line before reversing. Common in ending diagonal patterns. The "throw-over" is accompanied by high volume and euphoric sentiment, then a sharp reversal confirms the wave is complete and the corrective ABC begins.
SupercycleConcept
A wave degree spanning multiple decades. The S&P 500's bull market from 1932 is considered a Grand Supercycle. Understanding higher-degree waves provides context for lower-degree counts — a Wave 2 correction within a Supercycle uptrend can be extremely deep and long-lasting.
Wave CountConcept
The analyst's interpretation of where price currently sits within the Elliott Wave structure. Always maintain a primary count (most probable) and an alternate count (if the primary is invalidated). A good analyst always knows the exact price level that proves their count wrong.
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08 — Live Analysis

Elliott Wave Signals

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