FX BRIEF | 12 May 2026 • 05:32 CET | Asian Session

Global FX Overview — Asian Session

The US Dollar maintains its commanding position in Asian trade as markets price in persistent hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric amid sticky inflation concerns. Dollar strength of +0.148 intraday reflects renewed safe haven demand and yield differential support, with USD/JPY pushing toward 158.00 intervention territory. Risk sentiment remains fragile as Asian equities trade mixed, while commodity currencies show resilience despite broader DXY gains. The session is characterized by divergent central bank expectations, with the Fed's restrictive stance contrasting sharply with dovish signals from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank easing bias.

Currency Strength 1. USD: Broad-based strength driven by yield differentials and safe haven flows 2. NZD: +0.10% intraday, benefiting from RBNZ hawkish hold and dairy price recovery 3. AUD: -0.05% despite commodity strength, China growth concerns weighing 4. EUR: -0.08% as ECB dovish tilt pressures single currency 5. USD/CAD: +0.06% with BoC pause expectations mounting 6. CHF: +0.26% gaining defensive bid amid geopolitical tensions 7. GBP: -0.14% weakest major, BoE dovish pi

vot weighing on sterling

FX Majors

EUR/USD 1.1759: Euro under pressure as ECB policy divergence widens. Critical support at 1.1750 holding for now, but break targets 1.1680. Bearish bias intact below 1.1800 resistance.

GBP/USD 1.3576: Sterling's worst performer as BoE dovish shift accelerates. Key support at 1.3550 vulnerable, with 1.3480 next target. Bearish momentum building below 1.3620.

USD/JPY 157.7050: Yen weakness intensifying despite intervention rhetoric. Approaching critical 158.00 level where authorities may act. Bullish bias continues but intervention risk caps upside.

AUD/USD 0.7233: Aussie consolidating after recent gains. China concerns offset commodity strength. Range-bound between 0.7200-0.7280, neutral bias near-term.

USD/CHF 0.7798: Franc showing relative strength amid haven flows. Testing 0.7800 resistance, break targets 0.7850. Bullish USD bias but momentum slowing.

USD/CAD 1.3691: Loonie weakening on BoC dovish expectations and oil price volatility. Above 1.3680 support, targeting 1.3750. Bullish bias on policy divergence.

NZD/USD 0.5957: Kiwi outperforming on RBNZ hawkish hold and dairy strength. Above 0.5940 support, eyeing 0.6000 resistance. Constructive near-term outlook.

FX Crosses — Rotation

EUR/JPY 185.3850: Benefiting from dual yen weakness and moderate euro resilience. Break above 185.50 targets 187.00.

GBP/JPY 214.0740: Sterling-yen maintaining uptrend despite GBP weakness. Yen selling overwhelming sterling concerns.

AUD/JPY 114.0120: Commodity currency strength against yen continues. Testing 114.50 resistance level.

CAD/JPY 115.1850: Energy complex supporting loonie against yen despite broader CAD weakness.

NZD/JPY 93.8950: Best performing cross, RBNZ hawkishness driving gains toward 94.50.

Flows and Positioning

• Carry trade unwinding in low-yielder JPY accelerating, benefiting high-beta currencies • Corporate month-end hedging flows supporting USD demand across Asian time zones • Systematic trend following strategies adding to USD long positions on momentum signals • Real money managers reducing EM exposure, rotating into G10 defensive positions

Trade Ideas Intraday

LONG: USD/JPY 157.70: Target 158.00, stop 157.40 - intervention risk-reward favorable NZD/USD 0.5957: Target 0.6000, stop 0.5930 - RBNZ hawkish momentum EUR/CHF 0.9167: Target 0.9200, stop 0.9140 - technical breakout play

SHORT: GBP/USD 1.3576: Target 1.3520, stop 1.3610 - BoE dovish momentum

FX Crosses — Rotation

EUR/JPY 185.3850: Benefiting from dual yen weakness and moderate euro resilience. Break above 185.50 targets 187.00.

GBP/JPY 214.0740: Sterling-yen maintaining uptrend despite GBP weakness. Yen selling overwhelming sterling concerns.

AUD/JPY 114.0120: Commodity currency stre