FX BRIEF - 13 May 2026 • 06:44 CET | Asian Session

Headline: Global FX Overview — Asian Session

The dollar asserted dominance across Asian trading, gaining 0.317% on broad-based strength as risk-off sentiment permeated markets following overnight developments in global trade tensions. USD momentum built on hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and robust US economic data, while commodity currencies and European majors retreated. Japanese yen weakness persisted despite intervention concerns, with USD/JPY testing fresh multi-decade highs above 157.70. Asian equity markets declined, reinforcing safe-haven dollar demand and unwinding of carry trade positions.

Currency Strength Rankings

Strongest to weakest intraday performance shows clear USD dominance: USD (+0.317%), CHF (+0.035%), JPY (-0.158%), CAD (-0.225%), AUD (-0.080%), EUR (-0.430%), GBP (-0.500%), NZD (-0.390%). Corporate repatriation flows supported the dollar alongside month-end positioning adjustments. European currencies faced broad-based selling pressure while commodity currencies showed mixed performance reflecting divergent central bank policies.

FX Majors Analysis

EUR/USD at 1.1729 declined 0.43% intraday, breaking below the 1.1750 support zone amid ECB dovish expectations and German economic data disappointment. Technical bias remains bearish with

1.1700 as next target and resistance at 1.1780.

GBP/USD at 1.3537 fell 0.50% as UK inflation concerns mount ahead of tomorrow's CPI release. Cable broke 1.3550 support decisively, targeting 1.3500 with upside capped at 1.3580. Political uncertainty adds downside pressure.

USD/JPY surged to 157.7190, up 0.31% intraday, approaching intervention territory near 158.00. BOJ verbal intervention risks increase, though momentum favors further gains toward 158.50 resistance.

AUD/USD at 0.7240 held relatively steady despite broader USD strength, supported by China stimulus hopes. Range-bound between 0.7220-0.7280 with RBA policy divergence providing underlying support.

USD/CHF climbed to 0.7809, gaining 0.35% as SNB dovish pivot expectations weigh on the franc. Break above 0.7800 opens path to 0.7850 target.

USD/CAD advanced to 1.3700, up 0.15% on energy sector weakness and Bank of Canada easing speculation. Bullish momentum targets 1.3750 with support at 1.3680.

NZD/USD dropped to 0.5942, down 0.39% as RBNZ dovish shift weighs on the kiwi. Technical breakdown below 0.5950 suggests further weakness toward 0.5900.

FX Crosses Rotation

EUR/JPY at 184.9260 declined 0.15% as European weakness offset yen softness. GBP/JPY at 213.4880 fell 0.19% on sterling underperformance. AUD/JPY at 114.1560 gained 0.20% on relative au

ssie resilience. EUR/GBP at 0.8662 firmed 0.05% as pound weakness exceeded euro decline. Cross flows reflect currency-specific rather than broad risk sentiment moves.

Flows and Positioning

- Carry trade unwinding accelerating in JPY crosses as intervention risks mount - Month-end rebalancing favoring USD-long positions across institutional portfolios - Corporate hedging demand increasing in EUR/USD and GBP/USD puts - Seasonal commodity currency weakness persisting into Northern Hemisphere summer

Trade Ideas Intraday

LONG: USD/CHF targeting 0.7850 on SNB dovish pivot expectations and technical breakout. USD/CAD toward 1.3750 on energy weakness and central bank divergence. EUR/GBP to 0.8680 on relative UK political uncertainty versus eurozone stability.

SHORT: GBP/USD toward 1.3500 on inflation concerns and technical breakdown. NZD/USD targeting 0.5900 on RBNZ dovish shift. EUR/JPY to 184.50 on European economic weakness despite yen intervention risks.

Macro Drivers Today

US retail sales and industrial production data due in New York session could extend dollar strength. ECB President Lagarde speaks on monetary policy outlook. Chinese industrial production and retail sales may impact commodity currencies. UK wage growth data precedes tomorrow's critical CPI release.

Key Risks

BOJ intervention above 158.00

ssie resilience. EUR/GBP at 0.8662 firmed 0.05% as pound weakness exceeded euro decline. Cross flows reflect currency-specific rather than broad risk sentiment moves.

Flows and Positioning

- Carry trade unwinding accelerating in JPY crosses as intervention risks mount - Month-end rebalancing favor