FX BRIEF - 14 May 2026 • 07:06 CET | Asian Session

Headline: Global FX Overview — Asian Session

The dollar trades in neutral territory during Asian hours as markets digest mixed signals from overnight Fed rhetoric and solid Chinese manufacturing data. Risk sentiment remains constructive with commodity currencies leading gains, while yen weakness persists on widening rate differentials. USD strength index at +0.053 reflects balanced flows ahead of today's US retail sales and European inflation prints.

Currency Strength Rankings 1. AUD (+0.31%) - commodity rally and China optimism driving flows 2. USD/JPY carry (+0.12%) - rate differential theme intact 3. USD/CHF (+0.10%) - safe haven rotation continues 4. USD/CAD (+0.05%) - oil strength supporting loonie limits gains 5. EUR/USD (-0.11%) - ECB dovish repricing weighing 6. GBP/USD (-0.09%) - BoE pause expectations building 7. NZD/USD (-0.21%) - profit-taking after recent rally

FX Majors Analysis

EUR/USD at 1.1722 faces resistance at 1.1750 after breaking below the 1.1730 pivot. ECB's Lagarde speech tomorrow looms large with markets pricing 25bp cuts through Q3. Bias remains bearish near-term targeting 1.1680 support. Intraday range 1.1715-1.1735.

GBP/USD at 1.3525 consolidates below 1.

3550 resistance as UK wage data disappointed yesterday. BoE's Bailey commentary suggests September pause increasingly likely. Cable needs to hold 1.3500 to avoid deeper correction toward 1.3450. Neutral bias with downside risks.

USD/JPY at 157.8670 extends gains on carry trade revival and BoJ intervention fears subsiding. The 158 psychological level represents key resistance before 159 becomes viable. Yen crosses remain broadly supported. Bullish momentum intact despite stretched technicals.

AUD/USD at 0.7261 benefits from iron ore surge and Chinese PMI beat. Break above 0.7280 opens 0.7320 target with RBA hawkish shift supporting. Commodity currency outperformance theme intact. Bullish bias on China reopening optimism.

USD/CHF at 0.7812 consolidates recent gains with SNB intervention concerns limiting upside near 0.7850. Safe haven demand remains muted supporting dollar strength. Range-bound between 0.7800-0.7830 ahead of US data.

USD/CAD at 1.3704 finds support from dollar strength offset by oil rally. Key resistance at 1.3720 with break targeting 1.3750. BoC neutral stance keeps pair elevated. Modest bullish bias on energy divergence.

NZD/USD at 0.5940 retreats from highs as profit-taking emerges. RBNZ cut expectations limit upsid

e with 0.5960 resistance holding. Dairy prices and China sentiment remain key drivers. Neutral to bearish near-term.

FX Crosses Rotation

AUD/JPY at 114.5550 leads cross gains (+0.40%) on dual themes of commodity strength and yen weakness. Break above 115 opens 116.50 target. EUR/JPY at 184.9810 consolidates near highs with 185.50 resistance in focus. GBP/JPY at 213.4960 holds above 213 support. EUR/AUD at 1.6147 pressured by diverging central bank paths, testing 1.6120 support. AUD/CHF at 0.5668 extends gains on risk-on flows.

Flows and Positioning • Carry trade revival evident in JPY crosses with systematic CTA buying emerging • Month-end rebalancing flows support USD amid equity strength and bond rally • Commodity currency positioning turned net long for first time since Q4 2025 • Corporate hedging activity increased 15% WoW in EUR/USD ahead of earnings season

Trade Ideas Intraday

LONG Recommendations: AUD/USD at 0.7261 - China optimism and commodity rally support, target 0.7290, stop 0.7240 USD/JPY at 157.87 - Rate differential theme intact, target 158.20, stop 157.50 AUD/JPY at 114.55 - Dual tailwinds from commodity strength and yen weakness, target 115.20, stop 114.10

SHORT Recommendations: EUR/USD at 1.1722 - ECB dovish repr

e with 0.5960 resistance holding. Dairy prices and China sentiment remain key drivers. Neutral to bearish near-term.

FX Crosses Rotation

AUD/JPY at 114.5550 leads cross gains (+0.40%) on dual themes of commodity strength and yen weakness. Break above 115 opens 116.50 target. EUR/JPY at 184.9810 co