FX BRIEF | 15 May 2026 • 06:04 CET | Asian Session

Headline: Global FX Overview — Asian Session

The US dollar maintains its commanding position across Asian trading, posting broad-based gains as persistent inflation concerns and robust economic data continue to support hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Risk sentiment remains fragile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over global growth synchronization, driving safe-haven flows into the greenback and yen while commodity currencies face renewed selling pressure. The dollar's strength index surged 0.823% intraday, reflecting coordinated weakness across G10 currencies as traders position defensively ahead of key US retail sales data.

Currency Strength

Strongest to weakest intraday performance shows USD leading (+0.823%), followed by JPY benefiting from dual safe-haven and intervention speculation flows. CHF trails in positive territory (+0.57% vs USD) on Swiss National Bank dovish pivot concerns. EUR (-0.64% vs USD) underperforms on ECB policy uncertainty, while GBP (-1.32% vs USD) suffers from persistent UK fiscal concerns. Commodity currencies AUD (-1.27%) and NZD (-1.15%) face dual headwinds from China growth fears and falling commodity prices. CAD (-0.31% vs USD) shows relative resilience supported by oil price stability.

FX Majors

EUR/USD 1.1641 breaks below ke

y 1.1650 support, targeting 1.1600 psychological level as ECB dovish tilt weighs. Short-term bias remains bearish with momentum indicators deteriorating. RSI approaching oversold territory suggests potential for technical bounce.

GBP/USD 1.3348 extends decline below 1.3400 as UK political uncertainty compounds BoE policy confusion. Immediate support at 1.3300 critical to prevent acceleration toward 1.3200. Sterling faces triple headwinds from fiscal, monetary and political risks.

USD/JPY 158.6460 approaches intervention zone above 158.00 as BoJ verbal warnings intensify. Bullish momentum intact but positioning cautious near psychological 160.00. Technical outlook positive despite intervention risks.

AUD/USD 0.7163 breaks key 0.7200 support as China concerns resurface alongside falling iron ore prices. Next target 0.7100 with bearish momentum accelerating. RBA dovish pivot adds downside pressure.

USD/CHF 0.7860 benefits from broad dollar strength and SNB dovish shift expectations. Bullish break above 0.7850 resistance opens path to 0.7900. Swiss franc loses safe-haven appeal relative to USD.

USD/CAD 1.3748 consolidates gains above 1.3700 despite oil price resilience. BoC dovish tilt supports further upside toward 1.3800 resistance. Relative outperformance vs other commodity currencies notable.

NZD/USD 0.5864 extends decline below

0.5900 support as RBNZ dovish pivot accelerates. Weakest G10 performer this week faces further pressure toward 0.5800. Dairy price weakness compounds bearish outlook.

FX Crosses — Rotation

EUR/JPY 184.6260 consolidates below 185.00 as ECB-BoJ policy divergence narrows. GBP/JPY 211.7560 vulnerable to further decline below 210.00 on sterling weakness. AUD/JPY 113.5790 breaks support, targeting 112.00 on commodity currency weakness. EUR/GBP 0.8718 benefits from UK-specific concerns, testing 0.8750 resistance.

Flows and Positioning

• Carry trade unwinding accelerates as volatility spikes, particularly affecting AUD and NZD positions • Corporate hedging flows favor USD strength with month-end rebalancing supporting greenback • Central bank intervention speculation caps USD/JPY upside while supporting yen crosses • Commodity currency positioning remains heavily short with further capitulation likely

Trade Ideas Intraday

LONG: USD/CHF above 0.7840, target 0.7900 on SNB dovish pivot. GBP/JPY short covering bounce toward 213.50 on oversold conditions. EUR/GBP above 0.8700, target 0.8750 on relative UK weakness.

SHORT: AUD/USD below 0.7180, target 0.7100 on China concerns. EUR/USD below 1.1650, target 1.1600 on ECB dovishness. NZD/JPY below 93.50, target 91.00 on dual currency weakness.

Macro Drivers Today

US retail sales data expected

0.5900 support as RBNZ dovish pivot accelerates. Weakest G10 performer this week faces further pressure toward 0.5800. Dairy price weakness compounds bearish outlook.

FX Crosses — Rotation

EUR/JPY 184.6260 consolidates below 185.00 as ECB-BoJ policy divergence narrows. GBP/JPY 211.7560 vulnerable