FX BRIEF | 21 May 2026 • 07:41 CET | Asian Session

Global FX Overview — Asian Session

The dollar trades in neutral territory during Asian hours with subdued volatility as markets digest mixed signals from recent Federal Reserve communications and await clarity on global growth trajectories. Risk sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with commodity currencies showing selective strength while yen weakness persists near intervention thresholds. Cross-currency flows dominate trading activity as participants position for potential central bank policy divergence ahead of key economic data releases.

Currency Strength Rankings 1. NZD (+0.42% intraday) - Commodity momentum and RBNZ hawkish sentiment 2. GBP (+0.19% intraday) - UK inflation expectations and BoE policy speculation 3. CAD (+0.19% intraday) - Oil price support and resilient domestic data 4. AUD (+0.11% intraday) - China stimulus hopes offsetting RBA dovish tilt 5. CHF (-0.13% intraday) - Safe haven outflows amid improved risk appetite 6. EUR (-0.02% intraday) - ECB dovish bias weighing on single currency 7. JPY (-0.01% intraday) - Intervention concerns capping further weakness

FX Majors Analysis

EUR/USD trades heavy at 1.1605, down 0.49% weekly as ECB dovish pivot contrasts with Fed hawkish hold. Key support lies at 1.1580 with resistance at 1

.1650. Bias remains bearish near-term given eurozone growth concerns and political uncertainty. Break below 1.1580 targets 1.1520 support zone.

GBP/USD extends gains to 1.3421, benefiting from relative BoE hawkishness and improved UK economic sentiment. Weekly gains of 0.22% reflect sterling's outperformance. Immediate resistance at 1.3450 precedes 1.3500 psychological level. Bullish momentum intact above 1.3380 support.

USD/JPY holds near intervention zone at 159.0150 as BoJ verbal warnings intensify. Weekly climb of 0.40% maintains upward pressure despite consolidation. Critical resistance at 160.00 remains untested. Downside limited by carry trade demand and rate differential dynamics.

AUD/USD recovers modestly to 0.7114 but remains pressured by 1.38% weekly decline. China stimulus speculation provides temporary support. Key resistance at 0.7150 caps upside while 0.7080 support underpins near-term range. Bias neutral pending China PMI data.

USD/CHF eases to 0.7878 as safe haven demand wanes. Weekly gains of 0.46% reflect dollar strength against European currencies. Immediate support at 0.7860 with resistance at 0.7900. Technical outlook constructive above 0.7850.

USD/CAD advances to 1.3773 despite oil price resilience, gaining 0.36% weekly. BoC dovish expectations support dollar strength. Resistan

ce at 1.3800 precedes 1.3850 target. Bullish bias maintained above 1.3750 support level.

NZD/USD rebounds to 0.5858, recouping intraday losses but down 0.77% weekly. RBNZ policy speculation and dairy price recovery aid recovery. Resistance at 0.5880 limits upside while 0.5830 provides near-term support.

FX Crosses — Key Rotations

GBP/JPY extends rally to 213.4020, gaining 0.63% weekly as sterling strength meets yen weakness. Momentum indicators suggest further upside toward 215.00 resistance. EUR/GBP slides to 0.8644, down 0.74% weekly as pound outperforms on relative monetary policy expectations. AUD/JPY consolidates at 113.0790 despite weekly decline of 0.99%, supported by carry trade flows. NZD/JPY leads commodity currency performance at 93.1170, up 0.40% intraday on RBNZ speculation.

Flows and Positioning

• Carry trade demand supports JPY crosses despite intervention risks, with GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY seeing continued institutional interest • Corporate hedging flows favor dollar strength ahead of month-end, particularly in EUR/USD and AUD/USD • Commodity currency positioning remains light, creating potential for tactical rebounds on China stimulus measures • Central bank reserve diversification continues supporting EUR and GBP on dips against dollar

Trade Ideas — Intraday

LONG Positions: GBP/JPY at

ce at 1.3800 precedes 1.3850 target. Bullish bias maintained above 1.3750 support level.

NZD/USD rebounds to 0.5858, recouping intraday losses but down 0.77% weekly. RBNZ policy speculation and dairy price recovery aid recovery. Resistance at 0.5880 limits upside while 0.5830 provides near-term sup