Global FX Overview — Asian Session

The dollar trades with neutral bias in early Asian hours as markets digest mixed overnight signals and position ahead of key European data releases. Risk sentiment remains constructive following Wall Street's overnight gains, though geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe continue to underpin safe-haven demand. USD strength index at +0.098 reflects measured dollar appreciation against major counterparts, with JPY weakness dominating cross flows.

Currency Strength 1. NZD: +0.30% (RBNZ hawkish repricing, commodity flows) 2. USD/JPY: +0.24% (BoJ intervention fears persist above 159) 3. USD/CHF: +0.21% (SNB dovish positioning weighs on franc) 4. USD/CAD: +0.09% (oil price divergence, BoC pause expectations) 5. EUR/USD: +0.12% (ECB policy normalization narrative) 6. AUD/USD: -0.26% (China growth concerns, iron ore weakness) 7. GBP/USD: -0.30% (BoE dovish pivot weighs on sterling)

FX Majors

EUR/USD 1.1651 trades within established 1.1620-1.1680 range as ECB hawkish rhetoric supports the euro. Intraday bias neutral with resistance at 1.1675. Settlement gains reflect positioning ahead of German CPI data.

GBP/USD 1.3456 under pressure following BoE Governor Bailey's d

ovish commentary yesterday. Break below 1.3450 targets 1.3420 support. Political uncertainty adds to sterling headwinds.

USD/JPY 1593370 approaches critical 160.00 level with intervention risks escalating. BoJ verbal warnings intensify above 159.50. Momentum favors further upside despite official pushback.

AUD/USD 0.7152 weakens on China manufacturing data disappointment. RBA hawkish stance provides limited support. Key support at 0.7130 holds for now.

USD/CHF 0.7847 benefits from SNB dovish positioning and European political uncertainty. Break above 0.7860 opens path to 0.7900.

USD/CAD 1.3816 consolidates near session highs as oil price weakness offsets BoC hawkish expectations. Range-bound between 1.3800-1.3830.

NZD/USD 0.5880 leads major currency gains on RBNZ hawkish repricing. Dairy auction strength supports kiwi momentum toward 0.5900.

FX Crosses

EUR/JPY 185.5940 extends gains as ECB-BoJ policy divergence widens. Momentum targets 186.50 resistance.

GBP/JPY 214.3980 consolidates near session lows as sterling weakness offsets yen selling. Range-bound trading expected.

NZD/JPY 93.6570 surges on dual momentum from RBNZ hawkishness and BoJ dovishness. Technical break above 94.00 likely.

EUR/GBP 0.8656 rallies on relative monetary policy positioning. ECB hawkish narrative trumps BoE uncertainty.

CAD/JPY 115.3240 supported by oil-yen correlation despite crude weakness.

Flows and Positioning

• Carry trade unwinding in JPY crosses limited despite 160.00 approach in USD/JPY • European pension fund month-end rebalancing favors EUR strength • Commodity currency divergence reflects China growth concerns versus RBNZ hawkishness • Risk parity funds reducing FX volatility exposure ahead of Fed speakers

Trade Ideas Intraday

LONG: NZD/USD 0.5880 - RBNZ hawkish momentum, dairy strength, technical break higher EUR/CHF 0.9140 - ECB-SNB divergence, European political safe-haven flows USD/CAD 1.3816 - Oil weakness, BoC pause expectations, USD strength

SHORT: GBP/JPY 214.40 - Sterling weakness, BoE dovish pivot, range-top rejection AUD/CHF 0.5609 - China concerns, commodity weakness, SNB dovishness GBP/AUD 1.8819 - BoE uncertainty versus RBA hawkishness, momentum divergence

Macro Drivers Today German CPI preliminary data at 1200 GMT critical for ECB policy expectations. Fed's Williams and Bostic speeches at 1430 GMT for dollar direction. China PMI manufacturing overnight disappointed at 49.8

EUR/GBP 0.8656 rallies on relative monetary policy positioning. ECB hawkish narrative trumps BoE uncertainty.

CAD/JPY 115.3240 supported by oil-yen correlation despite crude weakness.

Flows and Positioning

• Carry trade unwinding in JPY crosses limited despite 160.00 approach in USD/JPY • Europea