COMMODITIES BRIEF 16 June 2026 • 06:54 CET

Headline: Commodities Markets — Session Overview

Commodities markets are consolidating gains this morning following a powerful week-to-date rally across precious metals and industrial commodities, while energy markets continue to absorb persistent demand concerns stemming from softer Chinese manufacturing data. The divergence between metals and crude oil reflects the ongoing commodities supercycle narrative, driven by structural supply deficits in critical minerals and monetary easing expectations, set against cyclical energy weakness tied to OPEC+ production policy uncertainty and above-trend inventory builds. Dollar weakness has provided broad tailwinds to commodity prices, with the DXY down approximately 1.8% week-to-date, supporting precious metals in particular. Risk sentiment remains cautiously constructive amid geopolitical stability in the Middle East and growing conviction that central banks across developed markets are approaching terminal rate cuts, which historically supports real asset allocation.

Precious Metals: Gold Consolidates Above $4300, Industrial Metals Mixed

Gold is trading at $4338.00 per ounce, up 0.23% intraday and extending a remarkable 6.06% weekly advance that has pushed prices to fresh all-time highs. The rally is underpinned by declining real yields across the curve, with 10-year TIPS yields dropping 14 basis points week-to-date to 1.62%, improving the opportunity cost calculus for non-yielding assets. Central bank demand remains robust, with emerging market monetary authorities adding an estimated 42 tonnes to official reserves in May alone, maintaining the unprecedented buying pace established in 2024-2025. Safe-haven flows have also

contributed marginally amid lingering concerns over European fiscal sustainability and residual banking sector fragility in regional institutions. Technical momentum remains powerfully bullish, with RSI at 71 indicating overbought conditions that may invite near-term profit-taking, though the structural bull case remains intact.

Silver is underperforming at $69.53 per ounce, down 0.77% intraday despite an 8.83% week-to-date gain, reflecting some industrial demand concerns following weaker solar panel production forecasts from key Chinese manufacturers. The gold-silver ratio has compressed to 62.4, approaching levels that historically suggest silver is fairly valued relative to gold, though continued monetary accommodation could drive further ratio compression toward the 55-60 range observed during previous precious metals bull markets.

Platinum is quoted at $1765.20 per ounce, down 0.27% intraday but holding firm gains of 6.17% this week, supported by supply disruption concerns in South African operations and increasing substitution demand from automakers pivoting to hybrid powertrains. Palladium at $1336.00 per ounce, down 0.80% today but up 8.21% weekly, continues to benefit from Russian export uncertainty and tightening emissions standards across Asia-Pacific markets.

Copper, the critical growth barometer, is trading at $6.44 per pound, off 0.67% this session despite a healthy 2.88% weekly gain. Prices are being supported by mine production shortfalls in Chile and Peru totaling approximately 180,000 tonnes year-to-date, combined with escalating demand from grid infrastructure projects globally. We anticipate further upside as summer construction activity intensifies and AI-related data center buildouts acce

lerate copper-intensive electrical installations.

Energy: Crude Under Pressure as OPEC+ Adds Barrels, Natural Gas Firms

WTI crude is trading at $80.50 per barrel, down 0.31% intraday and suffering an 8.22% weekly decline that represents the sharpest setback since February. Brent is at $82.72 per barrel, down 0.54% today and off 8.48% week-to-date. The selloff reflects market concerns over OPEC+ discipline following reports that several member states exceeded production quotas by an aggregate 340,000 barrels per day in May, combined with the cartel's decision last week to proceed with a planned 450,000 barrel per day production increase in July. Demand signals from China remain mixed, with refinery runs declining 2.1% month-over-month in May despite being the peak driving season, raising questions about consumption strength in the world's largest crude importer.

Supply fundamentals have shifted bearish in the near term, with US commercial crude inventories building by 4.8 million barrels last week to 448 million barrels, well above the five-year seasonal average. Geopolitical risk premiums have evaporated following the normalization of Strait of Hormuz transit and reduced tensions in the Red Sea shipping lanes. The forward curve has flipped into contango through the six-month strip, with the M1-M7 spread at negative $1.35 per barrel for WTI, signaling oversupply concerns.

The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $2.22 per barrel, reflecting logistical constraints at Cushing and robust US shale production, which continues to surprise to the upside with rig efficiency gains offsetting the modest decline in active drilling rigs.

Natural gas is quoted at $3.17 per million British thermal units, up 0.86% intraday and 2.

lerate copper-intensive electrical installations.

Energy: Crude Under Pressure as OPEC+ Adds Barrels, Natural Gas Firms

WTI crude is trading at $80.50 per barrel, down 0.31% intraday and suffering an 8.22% weekly decline that represents the sharpest setback since February. Brent is at $82.72 per b