EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today
Summary
EUR/USD is trading at 1.12549, up a marginal 0.07% on the day, after rallying from a prior-day low of 1.12196 to a high of 1.13404. Price is now pulling back and sitting just below the SuperTrend level at 1.12789, hovering near the SMA20 at 1.12554. The overall bias remains bearish with medium confidence, with the burden of proof on bulls to reclaim key overhead resistance.
Key levels — confluence zones
Zones where several technical levels cluster together (moving averages, SuperTrend, Fibonacci retracements, previous-day range, swing points). More converging levels mean a more relevant zone.
| Resistance | Levels | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12701 | Swing low | ● |
| 1.12789 | SuperTrend | ● |
| 1.13043 | SMA50 | ● |
| Support | Levels | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12438 | Fib 38.2% | ● |
| 1.12391 | Fib 50.0% | ● |
| 1.12345 | Fib 61.8% | ● |
Trend
All three major moving averages slope above price — SMA20 at 1.12554, SMA50 at 1.13043, and SMA200 at 1.13723 — confirming a structurally bearish alignment. The SuperTrend indicator at 1.12789 is pointing down, adding directional pressure from above. The 4-hour Ichimoku context places price below the cloud with a bull score of 0 and a bear score of 4, reinforcing the dominant downtrend regime.
| Indicator | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | 1.12554 | price below |
| SMA 50 | 1.13043 | price below |
| SMA 200 | 1.13723 | price below |
| SuperTrend (10,3) | 1.12789 | bearish |
| Ichimoku 4H | below the cloud | 0/4 bullish · 4/4 bearish |
Momentum
RSI at 63.3 is elevated and approaching overbought territory, suggesting the recent bounce may be losing steam. The MACD reads -0.001558 against a signal of -0.001968 — the MACD line is above its signal, indicating a short-term positive cross, but both values remain in negative territory, keeping the broader momentum picture bearish.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 63.3 |
| MACD / signal | -0.001558 / -0.001968 |
Structure — swing, Fibonacci and Elliott Wave
The most recent swing ran upward from 1.12196 to 1.12587. Key Fibonacci retracement levels from that swing sit at 1.12438 (38.2%), 1.12391 (50.0%), and 1.12345 (61.8%), forming a layered support cluster below current price. Elliott Wave analysis labels the current position as Wave A — the first corrective leg — with a probability of 59% and invalidation at 1.13931.
| Element | Level |
|---|---|
| Last swing | 1.12196 → 1.12587 (up) |
| Fibonacci 38.2% | 1.12438 |
| Fibonacci 50.0% | 1.12391 |
| Fibonacci 61.8% | 1.12345 |
| Elliott Wave | Wave 🅐 — First Corrective Leg |
| Elliott invalidation | 1.13931 |
Trade scenarios
Educational scenarios built from the confluence zones. Entry, stop and target are calculated by our engine; risk/reward is computed from the published numbers, and scenarios with an unfavourable ratio are flagged rather than presented as opportunities.
| Scenario | Entry | Stop | Target | R:R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish aggressive (pullback) | 1.12438 | 1.12385 | 1.12701 | 4.96:1 | good |
| Bearish aggressive (rejection) | 1.12701 | 1.12754 | 1.12438 | 4.96:1 | good |
| Bullish conservative (breakout) | 1.12728 | 1.12649 | 1.12789 | 0.77:1 | unfavourable |
| Bearish conservative (breakdown) | 1.12412 | 1.12490 | 1.12391 | 0.27:1 | unfavourable |
Outlook and confirmation
A bearish case activates on a rejection at or below 1.12701, with the short-rejection scenario offering a 4.96 risk/reward ratio targeting 1.12438. The bullish case requires a pullback into the 1.12438 Fibonacci support zone, where the long-pullback scenario also presents a 4.96 risk/reward ratio targeting 1.12701. Both setups carry 'good' quality ratings. Breakout and breakdown scenarios below those levels show poor risk/reward and are less compelling structurally.
FAQ
What is the EUR/USD trend today?
On the 1-hour chart our engine reads a bearish bias with medium confidence (score -3/7), based on moving averages, MACD, RSI, SuperTrend and the 4-hour Ichimoku context. EUR/USD trades at 1.12549.
What are the key support levels for EUR/USD?
The nearest support zones are 1.12438, 1.12391, 1.12345.
What are the key resistance levels for EUR/USD?
The nearest resistance zones are 1.12701, 1.12789, 1.13043.
What would confirm a move in EUR/USD?
An hourly close above 1.12701 would confirm the bullish case. An hourly close below 1.12438 would confirm the bearish case.
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