S&P 500 Technical Analysis Today
Summary
The S&P 500 trades at 7,668.82 on the 1-hour chart, up just 0.2% on the day following a swing advance from 7,616.78 to 7,684.75. Price sits below the SMA50 at 7,695.25 and inside the Ichimoku cloud, caught between swing-low support at 7,616.78 and a cluster of overhead resistance. The overall bias is bearish with medium confidence, score -3.
Key levels — confluence zones
Zones where several technical levels cluster together (moving averages, SuperTrend, Fibonacci retracements, previous-day range, swing points). More converging levels mean a more relevant zone.
| Resistance | Levels | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| 7,695.25 | SMA50 | ● |
| 7,712.19 | SuperTrend | ● |
| 7,722.88–7,724.15 | Previous-day high + Swing high + Swing high | ●●● |
| Support | Levels | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| 7,616.78 | Swing low | ● |
Trend
All three major moving averages sit above current price — SMA20 at 7,673.09, SMA200 at 7,675.61, and SMA50 at 7,695.25 — signalling price is trading beneath its own averages. SuperTrend is pointing down at 7,712.19, reinforcing the bearish structure. The 4-hour Ichimoku regime is flagged as inside_cloud, reflecting indecision with a slight bearish lean: bull score 2, bear score 1.
| Indicator | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | 7,673.09 | price below |
| SMA 50 | 7,695.25 | price below |
| SMA 200 | 7,675.61 | price below |
| SuperTrend (10,3) | 7,712.19 | bearish |
| Ichimoku 4H | inside the cloud | 2/4 bullish · 1/4 bearish |
Momentum
RSI at 49.1 sits just below the neutral 50 line, offering no bullish conviction. MACD reads -9.477 against a signal of -9.765; the histogram has turned marginally positive as MACD crosses above signal, hinting at a very early, unconfirmed stabilisation. Volume ratio of 1.3 shows above-average participation, worth monitoring for directional confirmation.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 49.1 |
| MACD / signal | -9.477 / -9.765 |
| Volume vs 40-bar average | ×1.3 |
Structure — swing, Fibonacci and Elliott Wave
The most recent swing ran upward from 7,616.78 to 7,684.75. Fibonacci retracement levels of that move sit at 38.2% (7,658.79), 50.0% (7,650.76), and 61.8% (7,642.74), all acting as potential intraday support on any pullback. Elliott wave context places price in Wave A — the first corrective leg — with a 48% probability and invalidation at 7,817.82.
| Element | Level |
|---|---|
| Last swing | 7,616.78 → 7,684.75 (up) |
| Fibonacci 38.2% | 7,658.79 |
| Fibonacci 50.0% | 7,650.76 |
| Fibonacci 61.8% | 7,642.74 |
| Elliott Wave | Wave 🅐 — First Corrective Leg |
| Elliott invalidation | 7,817.82 |
Trade scenarios
Educational scenarios built from the confluence zones. Entry, stop and target are calculated by our engine; risk/reward is computed from the published numbers, and scenarios with an unfavourable ratio are flagged rather than presented as opportunities.
| Scenario | Entry | Stop | Target | R:R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish aggressive (pullback) | 7,616.78 | 7,603.05 | 7,695.25 | 5.72:1 | good |
| Bearish aggressive (rejection) | 7,695.25 | 7,708.97 | 7,616.78 | 5.72:1 | good |
| Bullish conservative (breakout) | 7,702.11 | 7,681.52 | 7,712.19 | 0.49:1 | unfavourable |
| Bearish conservative (breakdown) | 7,609.92 | 7,630.51 | 7,568.74 | 2.00:1 | good |
Outlook and confirmation
The bearish case activates on a breakdown below trigger 7,616.78, opening the short_breakdown scenario (entry 7,609.92, stop 7,630.51, target 7,568.74, R/R 2.0). The bullish case requires a reclaim of 7,695.25; the short_rejection setup at that level (R/R 5.72) offers the most favourable risk/reward for bears watching for rejection. The long_pullback to 7,616.78 (R/R 5.72) is the only comparably attractive counter-trend opportunity should support hold.
FAQ
What is the S&P 500 trend today?
On the 1-hour chart our engine reads a bearish bias with medium confidence (score -3/7), based on moving averages, MACD, RSI, SuperTrend and the 4-hour Ichimoku context. S&P 500 trades at 7,668.82.
What are the key support levels for S&P 500?
The nearest support zones are 7,616.78.
What are the key resistance levels for S&P 500?
The nearest resistance zones are 7,695.25, 7,712.19, 7,722.88–7,724.15.
What would confirm a move in S&P 500?
An hourly close above 7,695.25 would confirm the bullish case. An hourly close below 7,616.78 would confirm the bearish case.
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