Natural Gas Technical Analysis Today
Summary
Natural Gas trades at 2.920, down 0.48% on the day after a swing from 3.021 to 2.917. Price sits beneath the key resistance cluster at 2.957–2.969 and is pressing against the sole identified support at 2.917. The overall bias is bearish with high confidence, reflected in a bear score of 3 versus a bull score of 1 on the hourly regime.
Key levels — confluence zones
Zones where several technical levels cluster together (moving averages, SuperTrend, Fibonacci retracements, previous-day range, swing points). More converging levels mean a more relevant zone.
| Resistance | Levels | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| 2.926 | Previous-day low | ● |
| 2.948 | Swing low | ● |
| 2.957–2.969 | Fib 38.2% + SMA20 + Swing low + SuperTrend + Fib 50.0% | ●●●● |
| Support | Levels | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| 2.917 | Swing low | ● |
Trend
All three moving averages are stacked bearishly: SMA20 at 2.960, SMA50 at 2.990, and SMA200 at 3.084 are all above current price. The 4-hour Ichimoku context confirms price is below the cloud, and SuperTrend is pointing down at 2.967. Price has not reclaimed SMA50, reinforcing the dominant downtrend across timeframes.
| Indicator | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | 2.960 | price below |
| SMA 50 | 2.990 | price below |
| SMA 200 | 3.084 | price below |
| SuperTrend (10,3) | 2.967 | bearish |
| Ichimoku 4H | below the cloud | 1/4 bullish · 3/4 bearish |
Momentum
RSI sits at an extreme 11.4, deep in oversold territory, signalling severely stretched selling conditions without yet confirming a reversal. MACD reads -0.0183 against a signal of -0.0153, maintaining a bearish crossover. Volume ratio of 0.12 indicates very thin participation, which may limit follow-through in either direction.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 11.4 |
| MACD / signal | -0.0183 / -0.0153 |
| Volume vs 40-bar average | ×0.12 |
Structure — swing, Fibonacci and Elliott Wave
The most recent swing runs from 3.021 down to 2.917. Fibonacci retracement levels place the 38.2% at 2.957 and the 50.0% at 2.969. Elliott wave context identifies the current position as Wave A, a first corrective leg, with a 55% probability and invalidation at 2.997.
| Element | Level |
|---|---|
| Last swing | 3.021 → 2.917 (down) |
| Fibonacci 38.2% | 2.957 |
| Fibonacci 50.0% | 2.969 |
| Fibonacci 61.8% | 2.981 |
| Elliott Wave | Wave 🅐 — First Corrective Leg |
| Elliott invalidation | 2.997 |
Trade scenarios
Educational scenarios built from the confluence zones. Entry, stop and target are calculated by our engine; risk/reward is computed from the published numbers, and scenarios with an unfavourable ratio are flagged rather than presented as opportunities.
| Scenario | Entry | Stop | Target | R:R | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish aggressive (pullback) | 2.917 | 2.908 | 2.926 | 1.00:1 | unfavourable |
| Bearish aggressive (rejection) | 2.926 | 2.935 | 2.917 | 1.00:1 | unfavourable |
| Bullish conservative (breakout) | 2.930 | 2.917 | 2.948 | 1.38:1 | unfavourable |
| Bearish conservative (breakdown) | 2.913 | 2.926 | 2.886 | 2.08:1 | good |
Outlook and confirmation
Bears need price to break and close below the 2.917 support trigger to open room toward 2.886. The short-breakdown scenario carries a 2.08 risk/reward and is the only setup rated good. Bulls require a reclaim above 2.926 to signal any meaningful recovery, though all long setups are rated poor. The dense resistance cluster at 2.957–2.969 represents a significant ceiling should any bounce materialise.
FAQ
What is the Natural Gas trend today?
On the 1-hour chart our engine reads a bearish bias with high confidence (score -7/7), based on moving averages, MACD, RSI, SuperTrend and the 4-hour Ichimoku context. Natural Gas trades at 2.920.
What are the key support levels for Natural Gas?
The nearest support zones are 2.917.
What are the key resistance levels for Natural Gas?
The nearest resistance zones are 2.926, 2.948, 2.957–2.969.
What would confirm a move in Natural Gas?
An hourly close above 2.926 would confirm the bullish case. An hourly close below 2.917 would confirm the bearish case.
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